DB please stop lying to us!

Just has a PVP match where Emily's epic triggered 12 times.
That worked out to about 50-70% [ i wasn't counting total attacks].
A maximum epic is supposed to trigger 30%.
the number of rounds the match lasted should have been large enough to reduce statistical anamolies to a low likelihood.

Tell us what the actual % is of Emily epics, of MK's dodge and tenacity etc.

China says you have to.

Comments

  • It's probably just the normal 30% and you just had bad luck unfortunately.
    Every time she attacks, a pair of invisible dice roll. Odds are that she can epic attack every time, or not at all. It's all luck based.
  • danacdanac Member
    If this sort of thing just happened once, I'd chalk it up to bad luck.

    But Emily epics, MK epics, MK dodge, MK tenacity, among other things, all trigger at a much higher rate than described, across multiple days and players.
  • i give u +1, the masuta dodge its crazy xD "30%" my balls got 30% dodge not masuta
  • It's probably just confirmation bias. You don't notice when the RNG goes your way.
  • echonapechonap Member
    lightward wrote: »
    i give u +1, the masuta dodge its crazy xD "30%" my balls got 30% dodge not masuta

    It's actually 25%. MK's listed dodge rate, that is. Your balls might be 30%. I haven't looked at what runes you have on your balls...
    The Empire is recruiting.
  • YykkilYykkil Member
    NobodyPi wrote: »
    It's probably just confirmation bias. You don't notice when the RNG goes your way.

    More than likely.
    9807918
  • MattCauthronMattCauthron Member
    edited April 11
    NobodyPi wrote: »
    It's probably just confirmation bias. You don't notice when the RNG goes your way.

    Anyone who has played this game long enough knows there are anomalies in how they calculate their "randomness". They say star level doesn't impact rarity upgrade chance for rune tuning but anyone who has crafted enough runes knows that is 100% false.

    It's is 100% possible that an entire match is given a random "coefficient" that effects every single dice roll in the entire match. This would cause you to see especially high epic proc rates/dodges ect in single matches

    Yes confirmation bias is a thing. But terrible coding on randomness is also a thing. After over a year of playing this game I find myself leaning more and more towards the latter. And this comes from someone who points out logical fallacies like it's my job.
  • HaxusBloodbaneHaxusBloodbane Member, Dungeon Boss Guru, Volunteer Moderator
    Picture a dice. Now every time Emily attacks this dice is rolled. If it lands on a 6 she gets an epic attack. Each time she goes to attack this dice is rolled and although difficult it isn't impossible to roll that six over and over again.
    Wants Control over a Legion of Spiders
    In game Level: 70
    Shared hero: Archangel Emily (Lvl 70), Epic level 12
    Lord of the Fries of The Potato Army Random Mook in Tater Squad Nameless Grunt in Tater Tots
    I'm on Twitter regularly

  • oredithoredith Member
    Picture a dice. Now every time Emily attacks this dice is rolled. If it lands on a 6 she gets an epic attack. Each time she goes to attack this dice is rolled and although difficult it isn't impossible to roll that six over and over again.
    each roll of the dice has a 1 in 6 chance of landing on a 6, for sure.

    however, the statistics changes considerably when you are tallying up number of rolls.

    it's just like the lotta. picking one number has a high probability of happening, but picking 6 numbers, the odds are astronomical. same with rolling a 6 many many times in a row, or proc'ing tenacity or epic over and over again.
    soon™ - it's the answer to everything
  • JackHallow666JackHallow666 Member, Dungeon Boss Guru, Volunteer Moderator
    oredith wrote: »
    Picture a dice. Now every time Emily attacks this dice is rolled. If it lands on a 6 she gets an epic attack. Each time she goes to attack this dice is rolled and although difficult it isn't impossible to roll that six over and over again.
    each roll of the dice has a 1 in 6 chance of landing on a 6, for sure.

    however, the statistics changes considerably when you are tallying up number of rolls.

    it's just like the lotta. picking one number has a high probability of happening, but picking 6 numbers, the odds are astronomical. same with rolling a 6 many many times in a row, or proc'ing tenacity or epic over and over again.

    Although that's true, it's not impossible. Just like Mk's dodges. I know it sucks, but it really just is RNG. I suppose they could implement a code such that you can't get more than 3 epic attacks in a row, or dodge more than 3 times in a row, but then the "30% to perform an epic attack" or "25% to dodge attacks" statistics become illusions, false statements.
    Level: 70
    Favorite hero: Indigo
    Currently: Trying to get as many runes done as possible. Takes a lot of money, man!
  • danacdanac Member
    The question is, IS it RNG.

    12/[let's say] 20 autoattacks is extremely strange for a 30% rate.

    I know about confirmation bias, I know that random does not mean equally distributed.

    But if you have a large enough sample size, it should even out.
    Like Matt, I've been playing this game for a while, and I'm still waiting for it to even out.

    If y'all don't believe me, start keeping statistics.
    record MKs dodge rate.
  • bvs72bvs72 Member
    I don't believe you. Your profile picture looks like a idiot. I think it is the hair.
  • bvs72 wrote: »
    I don't believe you. Your profile picture looks like a idiot. I think it is the hair.

    I'm drunk and this made me laugh out loud.
  • danacdanac Member
    bvs72 wrote: »
    I don't believe you. Your profile picture looks like a idiot. I think it is the hair.

    8iqbwpuehzac.jpg
  • bvs72bvs72 Member
    I'm sorry @danac. Victoria still thinks you are ugly compared to me.
  • danacdanac Member
    bvs72 wrote: »
    I'm sorry @danac. Victoria still thinks you are ugly compared to me.

    dgrklx0teb3e.jpg
  • bvs72bvs72 Member
    She knows you will become:

    6dtqzyzx2k2e.jpg
  • HaxusBloodbaneHaxusBloodbane Member, Dungeon Boss Guru, Volunteer Moderator
    oredith wrote: »
    Picture a dice. Now every time Emily attacks this dice is rolled. If it lands on a 6 she gets an epic attack. Each time she goes to attack this dice is rolled and although difficult it isn't impossible to roll that six over and over again.
    each roll of the dice has a 1 in 6 chance of landing on a 6, for sure.

    however, the statistics changes considerably when you are tallying up number of rolls.

    it's just like the lotta. picking one number has a high probability of happening, but picking 6 numbers, the odds are astronomical. same with rolling a 6 many many times in a row, or proc'ing tenacity or epic over and over again.

    Just because the odds are astronomical does not mean that it cannot happen.

    26493f3a02276566ef94c1f725beb1b5.jpg

    Wants Control over a Legion of Spiders
    In game Level: 70
    Shared hero: Archangel Emily (Lvl 70), Epic level 12
    Lord of the Fries of The Potato Army Random Mook in Tater Squad Nameless Grunt in Tater Tots
    I'm on Twitter regularly

  • Skip_HolmesSkip_Holmes Member
    edited April 17
    From my experience, it isn't that the listed percentages seem that far off overall. It's that they are extraordinarily streaky at times. To the point where one can't help but come to the conclusion that something beyond a simple "dice roll" is taking place.

    We've all had the MK matches with 6 dodges and 4 tenacity procs.

    We've all had the "stuck on rune chest for 15 quick loots in a row" phenomenon even though the chance is around 50/50. Yet we never see a run of non-rune chests like that.


    Sure, the odds of all those things game and player wide might balance out to match their listing. But something in the way they are generated for each individual instance (tune, dungeon, raid, etc) means they are very likely not the listed odds in the short term.

    Put simply, there's a big difference between "MK will always dodge 25% of the time" and "MK will dodge 50% of the time in half your matches and 0% of the time in half your matches". That's obviously an oversimplification of what's going on, but the pattern seems pretty clear after playing the game long enough.

    I'd love if some dedicated player tallied MK targets vs dodges for x-hundred matches and posted the results. I think we would see 25%ish overall, with some significant clustering.
  • danacdanac Member
    The problem with this concept is that if they run in streaks, it favors extra dodging.

    Say you go into a match and the rng for that match is giving mk 80% dodge. Happens all the time. You will likely spend 3-4 rounds killing mk.

    Now, go into a match where in those same 4 rounds mk would have 5% dodge to even things out over the long run. Most of the time, he gets hit once, he's dead.
    And it's NOT like you're seeing 4 raids where mk is ohko for every single 4-dodge raid.
  • From my experience, it isn't that the listed percentages seem that far off overall. It's that they are extraordinarily streaky at times. To the point where one can't help but come to the conclusion that something beyond a simple "dice roll" is taking place.

    We've all had the MK matches with 6 dodges and 4 tenacity procs.

    We've all had the "stuck on rune chest for 15 quick loots in a row" phenomenon even though the chance is around 50/50. Yet we never see a run of non-rune chests like that.


    Sure, the odds of all those things game and player wide might balance out to match their listing. But something in the way they are generated for each individual instance (tune, dungeon, raid, etc) means they are very likely not the listed odds in the short term.

    Put simply, there's a big difference between "MK will always dodge 25% of the time" and "MK will dodge 50% of the time in half your matches and 0% of the time in half your matches". That's obviously an oversimplification of what's going on, but the pattern seems pretty clear after playing the game long enough.

    I'd love if some dedicated player tallied MK targets vs dodges for x-hundred matches and posted the results. I think we would see 25%ish overall, with some significant clustering.

    Variance is a real thing, which can explain why MK on occasion dodges 5+ times in a row. However, over a large sample, those occurrences should be very minimal/extreme, yet what the player base is saying is that those occurrences are happening way more than they should, which suggests that the stated "25% dodge" rate is incorrect.
  • shiggity80 wrote: »
    From my experience, it isn't that the listed percentages seem that far off overall. It's that they are extraordinarily streaky at times. To the point where one can't help but come to the conclusion that something beyond a simple "dice roll" is taking place.

    We've all had the MK matches with 6 dodges and 4 tenacity procs.

    We've all had the "stuck on rune chest for 15 quick loots in a row" phenomenon even though the chance is around 50/50. Yet we never see a run of non-rune chests like that.


    Sure, the odds of all those things game and player wide might balance out to match their listing. But something in the way they are generated for each individual instance (tune, dungeon, raid, etc) means they are very likely not the listed odds in the short term.

    Put simply, there's a big difference between "MK will always dodge 25% of the time" and "MK will dodge 50% of the time in half your matches and 0% of the time in half your matches". That's obviously an oversimplification of what's going on, but the pattern seems pretty clear after playing the game long enough.

    I'd love if some dedicated player tallied MK targets vs dodges for x-hundred matches and posted the results. I think we would see 25%ish overall, with some significant clustering.

    Variance is a real thing, which can explain why MK on occasion dodges 5+ times in a row. However, over a large sample, those occurrences should be very minimal/extreme, yet what the player base is saying is that those occurrences are happening way more than they should, which suggests that the stated "25% dodge" rate is incorrect.


    Just to nitpick a little based on my previous post, I'm not sure the stated 25% dodge rate is incorrect if it is taken as a game-wide average. Without any real data to support, it at least feels like it's more of a 25% average with local spikes and clusters both above and below 25% based off some unseen factor.

    Like I said with rune chests...you can go days/weeks where everything functions normally with 50/50ish rune chest odds. And then all of a sudden you can get a dozen rune chests in a row. But you'll never get a dozen non-rune chests in a row. There's just something else that plays in besides the dice roll. Can't plan for it or play around it, you just take it for what it is. Same as MK dodge streaks.
  • @Skip_Holmes

    In regard to chests, you must just be getting on the wrong side of the sticky rng. I've had my fair share of 10+ material/token chests to go along with my 10+ rune chests. Of course finding 10 of a certain chest type in a row given a true 50/50 is a 1 in 1024 chance which means you should on average see it happen once every 10,000 quick loots or 50,000 stamina. I'm prettttty sure I see it happen more often than that heh

  • JackHallow666JackHallow666 Member, Dungeon Boss Guru, Volunteer Moderator
    The thing is, you only see posts about MK dodging a ridiculous number of times. If everyone posted every time an MK dodged around 25% of the time, or not at all, I can assure you posts about him dodging everything will be the minority.
    Level: 70
    Favorite hero: Indigo
    Currently: Trying to get as many runes done as possible. Takes a lot of money, man!
  • The thing is, you only see posts about MK dodging a ridiculous number of times. If everyone posted every time an MK dodged around 25% of the time, or not at all, I can assure you posts about him dodging everything will be the minority.

    Even if it were the minority, doesn't make it correct with the 25% dodge.

    We could have it 51% dodges correctly (ie 25% of the time), and 49% dodges incorrectly (greater than 25% of the time) and this would still be broken...yet it would be the "minority".
  • JackHallow666JackHallow666 Member, Dungeon Boss Guru, Volunteer Moderator
    shiggity80 wrote: »
    The thing is, you only see posts about MK dodging a ridiculous number of times. If everyone posted every time an MK dodged around 25% of the time, or not at all, I can assure you posts about him dodging everything will be the minority.

    Even if it were the minority, doesn't make it correct with the 25% dodge.

    We could have it 51% dodges correctly (ie 25% of the time), and 49% dodges incorrectly (greater than 25% of the time) and this would still be broken...yet it would be the "minority".

    Sigh... I meant a small minority. As in around 25%.
    Level: 70
    Favorite hero: Indigo
    Currently: Trying to get as many runes done as possible. Takes a lot of money, man!
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