The %500 celestial evo event is rigged!!

I need 4 bushido evos for shadowblade acendtion, and right now there is a 500% celestial evo envent going on. So i bought 50 energy pwnage shop so i had 130 energy. I started quick lookting a dungeon that would give me bushido evo.i used all the energy, that would be 26 quick loots I DID NOT GET 1 EVO please fix this devs

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  • Broken wrote: »
    I need 4 bushido evos for shadowblade acendtion, and right now there is a 500% celestial evo envent going on. So i bought 50 energy pwnage shop so i had 130 energy. I started quick lookting a dungeon that would give me bushido evo.i used all the energy, that would be 26 quick loots I DID NOT GET 1 EVO please fix this devs

    LOL i know the feeling.

    It's still a tiny rare chance of getting evos even with the 5x chance.
  • MattCauthronMattCauthron Member
    edited October 9
    Broken wrote: »
    I need 4 bushido evos for shadowblade acendtion, and right now there is a 500% celestial evo envent going on. So i bought 50 energy pwnage shop so i had 130 energy. I started quick lookting a dungeon that would give me bushido evo.i used all the energy, that would be 26 quick loots I DID NOT GET 1 EVO please fix this devs

    1% drop rate x 5 is a 5% drop rate. (The actual drop rate may be lower than 1%)

    The odds of getting no drop in 26 quick loots are 26%.

    I'm not sure the devs can fix probability math. It's been around for centuries.

    For just some random number fun: You have roughly a 5% probability of finding no evos in 58 runs at a 5% drop rate. This is same probability that you would find an evo on any given single run!
  • I think the drop rate is more like .1%. I have only gotten like, 5 in my life time from normal dungeons.
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  • I’ve only gotten one bushido in my life without any evo boost. Very rare drop. All the rare celestial are. (The ones that give 10 celestial essences are considered rare)
  • bvs72bvs72 Member
    Evos are one of the few benefits of the VIP portal. I have 31 unneeded Bushido evos, collected before the portals were broken.
  • Broken wrote: »
    I need 4 bushido evos for shadowblade acendtion, and right now there is a 500% celestial evo envent going on. So i bought 50 energy pwnage shop so i had 130 energy. I started quick lookting a dungeon that would give me bushido evo.i used all the energy, that would be 26 quick loots I DID NOT GET 1 EVO please fix this devs

    1% drop rate x 5 is a 5% drop rate. (The actual drop rate may be lower than 1%)

    The odds of getting no drop in 26 quick loots are 26%.

    I'm not sure the devs can fix probability math. It's been around for centuries.

    For just some random number fun: You have roughly a 5% probability of finding no evos in 58 runs at a 5% drop rate. This is same probability that you would find an evo on any given single run!

    Also not how probablity works lol. Continuing this train of logic 100 QLs has a 100% chance of success! And 150 QLs has 150% chance!!!

    Quick tip for checking yourself in the future - If your probability formula can result in a chance greater than 100% its definitely incorrect.

    If the chance of finding it is 1% then the chance of not finding it is 99%. So the chance of not finding it 26 times in a row is 0.99^26 = ~0.77. And yea im pretty sure 1% is too high. People usually plan on like 500 QLs for a rare celestial like a bushido. So you should plan on like 100 during a 5x event.
    centralcommand
  • SkulsSkuls Member
    edited October 10
    I learned in the past that 5x evo event only ‘worked’ for common celestials as the drop % for rare ones were (are) too low to matter. Ended up going for those and got rare ones from crafting/tower cups/gems instead. Less rage that way which is always a bonus.
  • i got a runed evo to ascend blackrund and one crypt evo so far for ponti
  • Broken wrote: »
    I need 4 bushido evos for shadowblade acendtion, and right now there is a 500% celestial evo envent going on. So i bought 50 energy pwnage shop so i had 130 energy. I started quick lookting a dungeon that would give me bushido evo.i used all the energy, that would be 26 quick loots I DID NOT GET 1 EVO please fix this devs

    1% drop rate x 5 is a 5% drop rate. (The actual drop rate may be lower than 1%)

    The odds of getting no drop in 26 quick loots are 26%.

    I'm not sure the devs can fix probability math. It's been around for centuries.

    For just some random number fun: You have roughly a 5% probability of finding no evos in 58 runs at a 5% drop rate. This is same probability that you would find an evo on any given single run!

    Also not how probablity works lol. Continuing this train of logic 100 QLs has a 100% chance of success! And 150 QLs has 150% chance!!!

    Quick tip for checking yourself in the future - If your probability formula can result in a chance greater than 100% its definitely incorrect.

    If the chance of finding it is 1% then the chance of not finding it is 99%. So the chance of not finding it 26 times in a row is 0.99^26 = ~0.77. And yea im pretty sure 1% is too high. People usually plan on like 500 QLs for a rare celestial like a bushido. So you should plan on like 100 during a 5x event.

    Matts math checks out, he was calculating with the (guessed) boosted chance in mind, so 5% to get a drop. Resulting in .95^26 = ~0.2635. If 1% for a drop is too high is a whole other story.
  • MattCauthronMattCauthron Member
    edited October 10
    Broken wrote: »
    I need 4 bushido evos for shadowblade acendtion, and right now there is a 500% celestial evo envent going on. So i bought 50 energy pwnage shop so i had 130 energy. I started quick lookting a dungeon that would give me bushido evo.i used all the energy, that would be 26 quick loots I DID NOT GET 1 EVO please fix this devs

    1% drop rate x 5 is a 5% drop rate. (The actual drop rate may be lower than 1%)

    The odds of getting no drop in 26 quick loots are 26%.

    I'm not sure the devs can fix probability math. It's been around for centuries.

    For just some random number fun: You have roughly a 5% probability of finding no evos in 58 runs at a 5% drop rate. This is same probability that you would find an evo on any given single run!

    Also not how probablity works lol. Continuing this train of logic 100 QLs has a 100% chance of success! And 150 QLs has 150% chance!!!

    Quick tip for checking yourself in the future - If your probability formula can result in a chance greater than 100% its definitely incorrect.

    If the chance of finding it is 1% then the chance of not finding it is 99%. So the chance of not finding it 26 times in a row is 0.99^26 = ~0.77. And yea im pretty sure 1% is too high. People usually plan on like 500 QLs for a rare celestial like a bushido. So you should plan on like 100 during a 5x event.

    Come on @CentralCommand I made it obvious I was assuming 5% drop rate. You really think I'd fail on such basic statistics >.<

    Ahh I see you how misread it due to the non correlated 26 and 26.

    Quick Tip: Before you call someone out - Make sure to up your reading comprehension game :P lolol
  • i remember trying to track down the bushido before we could craft....those were some painful days
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  • Broken wrote: »
    I need 4 bushido evos for shadowblade acendtion, and right now there is a 500% celestial evo envent going on. So i bought 50 energy pwnage shop so i had 130 energy. I started quick lookting a dungeon that would give me bushido evo.i used all the energy, that would be 26 quick loots I DID NOT GET 1 EVO please fix this devs

    1% drop rate x 5 is a 5% drop rate. (The actual drop rate may be lower than 1%)

    The odds of getting no drop in 26 quick loots are 26%.

    I'm not sure the devs can fix probability math. It's been around for centuries.

    For just some random number fun: You have roughly a 5% probability of finding no evos in 58 runs at a 5% drop rate. This is same probability that you would find an evo on any given single run!

    Also not how probablity works lol. Continuing this train of logic 100 QLs has a 100% chance of success! And 150 QLs has 150% chance!!!

    Quick tip for checking yourself in the future - If your probability formula can result in a chance greater than 100% its definitely incorrect.

    If the chance of finding it is 1% then the chance of not finding it is 99%. So the chance of not finding it 26 times in a row is 0.99^26 = ~0.77. And yea im pretty sure 1% is too high. People usually plan on like 500 QLs for a rare celestial like a bushido. So you should plan on like 100 during a 5x event.

    Come on @CentralCommand I made it obvious I was assuming 5% drop rate. You really think I'd fail on such basic statistics >.<

    Ahh I see you how misread it due to the non correlated 26 and 26.

    Quick Tip: Before you call someone out - Make sure to up your reading comprehension game :P lolol

    Haha fair enough, this makes more sense now, my bad.

    Fun fact @MattCauthron I legitimately did not realize it was your post until just now lol. I just read the probability part and laughed so I posted. I mostly just like math and wanted to bust out some calculations.

    centralcommand
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