Dishonest Drop Rates

Jibber is the only hero I have available in the Great Portal. He's listed at ~5% drop chance. The number of portal pulls I've done without getting a single drop suggest that the rate is FAR lower than this vague estimate. Are other people experiencing the same?

Comments

  • drakesdrakes Member
    coneyK wrote: »
    Jibber is the only hero I have available in the Great Portal. He's listed at ~5% drop chance. The number of portal pulls I've done without getting a single drop suggest that the rate is FAR lower than this vague estimate. Are other people experiencing the same?

    I never get the posted drop rate, especially not on the heroic portal. There needs to be a guaranteed drop
  • The grand is garbage. I had to open 60 heroic chest to get the new hero. That's right. 60. Supposedly the hero was featured also. Never again will this company get a dime from me.
  • SchnuppeSchnuppe Member
    edited March 17
    It doesn't matter if you have only Jibber or all bronze heroes in gold portal.
    It's ~5% chance to get 5 tokens at all.

    100 summons for 900,000 gold = 5 tokens unlocks for any bronze hero.Five tokens!! 5 unlocks=25 tokens.
    Prior to the update it was 100 summons for 1,000,000 gold = 60 random bronze tokens in average (10x 5 gold chests with 1 token were guaranteed!)

    There are 15 bronze heroes. Each requires 600 tokens for 6*, that's 9000 tokens....

    Edit: correction. It's unlocks not tokens. 1 unlock rewards 5 hero tokens.
    Post edited by Schnuppe on
  • I won't be doing any portal pulls until guaranteed drops return. The drop odds and rates are just terrible.
  • SchnuppeSchnuppe Member
    edited March 17
    Sorry, I have to correct myself.
    5% chance = 1 out of 20 to get 1 unlock.
    1 unlock is 5 tokens (correction here: 5 not 1 token).

    But...

    I've just tested it. Only Jibber in the portal left. 5% chance, right? I did 10 times 10 summons = 100 summons.

    In average this should give me 5 unlocks (5%=1:20 chance), something like 3, 4, 5, or 6 or even 7 unlocks, right? It depends on luck.

    100 summons gave me 0 unlocks. Zero. Not a single token :(
    Is this just bad luck?
    This does not feel right!
  • Schnuppe wrote: »
    Sorry, I have to correct myself.
    5% chance = 1 out of 20 to get 1 unlock.
    1 unlock is 5 tokens (correction here: 5 not 1 token).

    But...

    I've just tested it. Only Jibber in the portal left. 5% chance, right? I did 10 times 10 summons = 100 summons.

    In average this should give me 5 unlocks (5%=1:20 chance), something like 3, 4, 5, or 6 or even 7 unlocks, right? It depends on luck.

    100 summons gave me 0 unlocks. Zero. Not a single token :(
    Is this just bad luck?
    This does not feel right!

    I think that it is bad luck, because if you have a 5% chance and they seem to be calculated individually (each one is "rolled") you probably won't get the hero, the only way that the odds are changed is in the 10* heroic where you get a gold+ automatically.
    There once was a monster from the ice
    But here's a bit of advice
    Don't try to fight him, your fate will be quite grim
    You'd go from hero to human sacrifice
  • drakesdrakes Member
    Jibber may be the only one you can get tokens for but you are not guaranteed him. You have 5% chance of tokens, if it throws tokens for a hero you have 6 starred you get s gold chest instead.
  • 4avjk6cdxcmh.png
    The drop rates add up to 101% with only 1% for bronze heroes. Not sure what the 5% drop rate is for Jibber. Think it should either be 100% or 1% depending on context.

    I would guess that jibber is a 1% drop rate. So after 100 pulls there is a 36% to get no tokens.
  • danacdanac Member

    I would guess that jibber is a 1% drop rate. So after 100 pulls there is a 36% to get no tokens.

    which is a shame. I mean, it's not like you can get him anywhere else.
  • Heres the thing about drop rates...Percentages are not any sort of guarantee of receiving the item unless the sample size is stated.
    For example, Jibber has a 5% drop rate, as stated above... that is 1 in 20, but its also 2 in 40, 3 in 60 etc. So, for the drop rate to be accurate,out of 100 tries.. yu only need to receive 5 drops. you could, in theory..attempt this 95 times and get nothing, providing the next 5 times in a row, you got him every time. Unless the game specifies a 1 in 20 drop rate (not the same as a 5% drop rate) then the game is not being dishonest with anything.
    You have a 5 in 100 chance... to get the drop, but it could take 300 tries to get a single one and still have a 5% drop rate.
    ( flip a coin.. there is a 50% chance of tails, but that doesnt mean you HAVE to get tails every second flip)
  • @Zincberg I’m confused by your comment.

    Suppose Jibber has a 5% drop rate (it’s actually probably closer to .5%). Then every time you pull you have a 5% chance. Pull two times in a row and you have 1-(.95*.95)=9.75% chance for tokens. Pull 100 times and you have 1-(.95^100)=99.4% chance for tokens.

    Drop rate is not 5%.
  • bvs72bvs72 Member
    @MonkeyHunter - your comment suggests that one out of approximately 200 players will get no drops after 100 pulls. Poor @coneyK. The other 199 players did not post their success.
  • @Zincberg I’m confused by your comment.

    Suppose Jibber has a 5% drop rate (it’s actually probably closer to .5%). Then every time you pull you have a 5% chance. Pull two times in a row and you have 1-(.95*.95)=9.75% chance for tokens. Pull 100 times and you have 1-(.95^100)=99.4% chance for tokens.

    Drop rate is not 5%.

    @MonkeyHunter i think im even more confused by your comment.
    IF each time you pull, there is a 5% chance, then every time you pull, there is a 5% chance. Pulling 2 times in a row doesnt increase your odds... it remains at 5% every single time you pull.
    again, apply your math to the coin flip. The first time you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance you will get tails. flipping twice in a row, your odds are still 50% for tails. Get heads 100 times in a row, tails in no more likely to be the next one, than it was on the first one. It remains at 50%.
  • @Zincberg think of it this way. If you flip a coin twice you can get 4 equally possible results: HH, HT, TH, TT. So you only have 25% chance to flip tails twice even if each individual flip gives you 50% chance.

    Likewise, flipping a coin 3 times: HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, THH, TTT gives you 12.5% chance to get tails three times.

    Odds of getting tails every time in 100 flips is .5^100= ~0%.
  • ZincbergZincberg Member
    @MonkeyHunter lol...we may have to agree to disagree here, the odds of flipping any coin dont change regardless of the outcome of the previous flip. It is ALWAYS a 50% chance of flipping tails.. the coin doesnt know what was flipped previously..and the idea that after 5 tails in a row, that the next one MUST be heads is just Gamblers fallacy. Every time you flip, the odds reset to 50%, you absolutely cannot take into account what was flipped before.
    Regardless of all of that, if the game states a 5% drop rate, there is no reason to get upset if you have tried 20 times and not got one. Thats just not how percentages work.
Sign In or Register to comment.

© 2015 Boss Fight Entertainment, Inc. ; Boss Fight, the Boss Fight logo, and Dungeon Boss are
trademarks of Boss Fight Entertainment, Inc., used with permission www.bossfight.com