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coneyK
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Jibber is the only hero I have available in the Great Portal. He's listed at ~5% drop chance. The number of portal pulls I've done without getting a single drop suggest that the rate is FAR lower than this vague estimate. Are other people experiencing the same?

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I never get the posted drop rate, especially not on the heroic portal. There needs to be a guaranteed drop

It's ~5% chance to get 5 tokens at all.

100 summons for 900,000 gold = 5 tokens unlocks for any bronze hero.Five tokens!! 5 unlocks=25 tokens.

Prior to the update it was 100 summons for 1,000,000 gold = 60 random bronze tokens in average (10x 5 gold chests with 1 token were guaranteed!)

There are 15 bronze heroes. Each requires 600 tokens for 6*, that's 9000 tokens....

Edit: correction. It's unlocks not tokens. 1 unlock rewards 5 hero tokens.

5% chance = 1 out of 20 to get 1 unlock.

1 unlock is 5 tokens (correction here: 5 not 1 token).

But...

I've just tested it. Only Jibber in the portal left. 5% chance, right? I did 10 times 10 summons = 100 summons.

In average this should give me 5 unlocks (5%=1:20 chance), something like 3, 4, 5, or 6 or even 7 unlocks, right? It depends on luck.

100 summons gave me 0 unlocks. Zero. Not a single token

Is this just bad luck?

This does not feel right!

I think that it is bad luck, because if you have a 5% chance and they seem to be calculated individually (each one is "rolled") you probably won't get the hero, the only way that the odds are changed is in the 10* heroic where you get a gold+ automatically.

But here's a bit of advice

Don't try to fight him, your fate will be quite grim

You'd go from hero to human sacrifice

The drop rates add up to 101% with only 1% for bronze heroes. Not sure what the 5% drop rate is for Jibber. Think it should either be 100% or 1% depending on context.

I would guess that jibber is a 1% drop rate. So after 100 pulls there is a 36% to get no tokens.

which is a shame. I mean, it's not like you can get him anywhere else.

For example, Jibber has a 5% drop rate, as stated above... that is 1 in 20, but its also 2 in 40, 3 in 60 etc. So, for the drop rate to be accurate,out of 100 tries.. yu only need to receive 5 drops. you could, in theory..attempt this 95 times and get nothing, providing the next 5 times in a row, you got him every time. Unless the game specifies a 1 in 20 drop rate (not the same as a 5% drop rate) then the game is not being dishonest with anything.

You have a 5 in 100 chance... to get the drop, but it could take 300 tries to get a single one and still have a 5% drop rate.

( flip a coin.. there is a 50% chance of tails, but that doesnt mean you HAVE to get tails every second flip)

Suppose Jibber has a 5% drop rate (it’s actually probably closer to .5%). Then every time you pull you have a 5% chance. Pull two times in a row and you have 1-(.95*.95)=9.75% chance for tokens. Pull 100 times and you have 1-(.95^100)=99.4% chance for tokens.

Drop rate is not 5%.

@MonkeyHunter i think im even more confused by your comment.

IF each time you pull, there is a 5% chance, then every time you pull, there is a 5% chance. Pulling 2 times in a row doesnt increase your odds... it remains at 5% every single time you pull.

again, apply your math to the coin flip. The first time you flip a coin, there is a 50% chance you will get tails. flipping twice in a row, your odds are still 50% for tails. Get heads 100 times in a row, tails in no more likely to be the next one, than it was on the first one. It remains at 50%.

Likewise, flipping a coin 3 times: HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, THH, TTT gives you 12.5% chance to get tails three times.

Odds of getting tails every time in 100 flips is .5^100= ~0%.

Regardless of all of that, if the game states a 5% drop rate, there is no reason to get upset if you have tried 20 times and not got one. Thats just not how percentages work.

Regardless, like @danac insinuated, there are easier ways to get Jibber tokens if that is your goal. This is really just navel-gazing.

or does it?

Now... you can try and apply probability to the 20 flips, but nothing you do will change the chance of each single flip being 50%.

and sorrry, I cant look away from the navel.

Let’s not lose sight over the original question: What is Jibber’s drop rate? Assuming it is 5%, How do we test it? Well, we pull the great summons over and over again and see how often we get tokens, the more we pull, the closer the token rate should be to 5%. After 100 pulls we’d expect 5 Jibber pulls; after 1,000, 50; 10,000, 500.

How many pulls are necessary to appropriately evaluate the drop rate? What is bad luck vs false drop rate?

My question to you: what are the odds of getting NO Jibbers in 200 great summon pulls assuming 5% drop rate?

a) 5%

b) 2%

c) 1%

d) .5%

e) <.01%

Each summons pull is an individual event where there is a 5% chance of getting a Jibber. Each time you make the pull, the event is reset and there is still only a 5% chance.

Ask the question another way.... How many Jibbers would you expect to get per 100 pulls (again EXPECT...not ACTUAL). The answer is 5. 95 times, you should get nothing.

How many pulls does it take to get 1 Jibber? totally undefinable because as with my example here, you could legitimately pull 190 times out of 200 and still be working within the confines of 5% drop rate.

You hit the nail on the head with your last comment though...how many pulls are necessary to evaluate the drop rate..and the answer is...ALL OF THEM.

If I flip a coin twice, what are the odds of getting no heads?

a) 75%

b) 50%

c) 25% (correct answer)

If you can’t concede this point, then I guess we’re at an impasse.

@MonkeyHunter your thinking of the total chances (if you haven’t flipped any coins yet, the chance to get two heads is 25 because your ways it may happen are HH, HT, TH, TT. Notice how there is 1 in 4 that are HH)

@Zincberg thinking each coin flip is separate (so each flip is a 50% chance to get heads, so if you flip one then the next one, both have a 50% chance to be heads)

In my opinion however Zinceberg is correct because I know for a fact that portals calculate what you get as you use them so each time you click the SUMMON button, you have a 5/100 of getting tokens, and this is done each time with no correlation between the two.

Argue with me or don’t I made my case and won’t respond unless it is a legitamate question (but I know both of you are smart and shouldn’t have a problem with this).

And second any time you are talking about more then 1 of something the probability is no longer truly “individual”...it is still different then say dealing with a deck of cards. With cards if I pulled a card then pulled another looking for a certain card my odds go up more each time bc there are less cards now. But with something like portals or a coin, yes each individual chance is 50% (coins) but it still depends as a whole....if it didn’t then if I flipped 100 coins I should get exactly 50 tails every time, but that is actually not super common....these kind of things follow a bell curve where exactly 50/50 will be the most common but anything between 70/30 and 30/70 would be within pretty good reason...but if I some how flipped 99 tails in a row, statistically my odds of that next flip are definitely not 50%. The reason is I should be flipping 50/50 and I’m nowhere close to that I’m at 0/99 and for the 50/50 stat to be true I need to eventually work back towards that so at some point I should start flipping more heads back to back to even the curve back out. So it’s not like cards where the pull before has a direct effect on the next but since we are talking probability each pull (given 100s to thousands) needs to try to pull that % back towards the statiscal chance. So bc the other 99 happend they make the odds of flipping a 100th tails in a row much lower bc we shouldn’t have flipped 10 in a row much less 20,30,40,50...99.

If you don’t believe me grab a quarter and flip it till you get 99 tails in a row, do one more flip and record the answer....let me know if you hit heads 50% of the time or not after it.

1. @bvs72 Pobably not.

2. @epicredcard You and @monkeyhunter are employing gamblers fallacy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy) to odds, It just doesnt work that way. The odds of flipping a coin 9 times in a row and getting tails every time are 1/500. If you flipped a coin, and got 9 tails...then the odds of the next coin being tails are exactly the same as the first time you flipped the first coin. Although the overall odds of 10 tails in a row is 1/1024, the odds of the tenth coin being a tail is still 1/2 or 50%. The coin doesnt suddenly grow extra sides, or get weighted one way or the other...there is no physical way to make the coin fall one way or the other and apply any percentage other than 50% to the next flip... it matters ZERO what the 10 in a row chances are because the coin has only 2 sides...and is not affected in any way by the previous results.

You can speculate about "chances" and use any statistics to try and extrapolate data from any sources you like on multiple results of something happening, but as long as each pull/flip/toss is an individual event AND FAIR...then the odds of the last pull/flip/toss will always remain the same as the first one.

Now... Epicredcard, you are 100% correct in regards to cards because you are reducing the deck size each time..and if in the case of Jibber drops, DB came out and said "you have a 5% chance on your first summon but any hero token that drops from each consecutive pull will be removed from the pool", then we have a whole new ball game (and much fairer system. But they dont... the odds are 5%, the odds will always be 5%, no quantity of summons will affect the result, what you pull this time has no effect on the next one 5% is 5% each INDIVIDUAL attempt, and that percentage will never change.

@monkeyhunter I dont need to concede any point, I agree 100% that the chance of getting no heads in your example is 25%. But each time you flipped the coin, there was a 50% chance of it being heads..that CANNOT change. Dont forget that the odds of 32 heads and 1 tails is EXACTLY the same as 32 heads then 1 head.The result is not changing the percentage chance of the next one..only the percentage chance of any combination.

As previously stated, each flip of the coin is 50/50, heads or tails, regardless of any other flips.

Q - If I flip a coin twice, what are the odds of getting heads?

A - 100%, 50% & 0% are all possible outcomes...

In conclusion, if you were trying to get the new hero who had a 5% drop rate listed, and you did 100 summons thinking at least 5 of those summons would be the new hero, YOU WOULD BE WRONG!

Each and every one of those summons is calculated individually, with only a 5% chance of getting the new hero PER INDIVIDUAL SUMMON, NOT PER TOTAL SUMMONS YOU USED!

Do you agree, in this hypothetical situation, that there is a 25% chance to get no Jibber tokens or 75% to get at least one Jibber drop?